Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Bi-Monthly Updates on Oil, Dow, EUR/USD and GBP/USD

It's time for Updates on all of my model driven calls since I started this Blog back on February 9 this year.
In respond to readers request, I only post updates when I see it necessary due to changes in the market or serious moves in the positions I called. Otherwise, I find no reason to update even if days go by. As I wrote under my profile, my model isn't for day trading or short term trading. Although many times it may hit the profit target in matter of days as you can see from my past calls but the core of the model is price driven and not time driven.

Oil 53.25:
As mentioned on my previous posts, we saw a range from the low 40's to the low 50's which gave us the confidence to buy long from the low 40's. we also saw today a break above the 52 range up to 54.13. This works well if we entered from the low 40's which gave us a 1000 points move. however, my model is sending some confusing signals as to whether this will hold for additional move toward 60 and up or we will go back into the range of 50 and below. I lean more towards a move up but this isn't scientifically proven and I may be wrong in reading the signal here as there is definitely some resistance at this levels.


 

Dow 17875:
Model proved to be right on this one. we sold the market at 18200 and despite some moves in the recent days to the upper levels, so far it didn't hold and fell again. still in the range of 18200 to 17600.



EUR/USD 1.0810:
Model signaled a sell at 1.1340 and despite some attempts it didn't gain the strength to climb back to those levels. Our model is clear that the Eur/Usd is in a downtrend.




GBP/USD 1.4808:
The Model predicted back on March 19 that if it fails to move above 1.50 we can expect additional move to the downside of several hundreds points. As we can see on the chart it failed to make a move above 50 and so this move is still in the making.


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