Is the Dow heading down ?

Dow 17849:
After some of my readers were skeptical about my call insisting on selling the Dow, it is finally kicking in. Several hundred points to the downside in the last few days is just an appetizer. Dow can still correct itself for a while but the long shot is definitely to the downside.

Pros and Cons

I need to be humble admitting that no Model is perfect and although the odds are in our favor with accuracy of over 90%, we are still dealing with risks, and these risks need to be managed.
I would like to stick to my rule since I started this blog, and avoid going into details as to how to trade and manage a portfolio based on the calls generated by my model.


EUR/USD 1.10:
Although I insisted on my previous posts to sell the EUR/USD, the model failed to predict the comeback the Euro had in the last two weeks back to 1.1450. Having said that, I didn't change my view to sell the EUR/USD on the highs and that opportunity came in this week to sell again above 1.14 all the way down to close the week at 1.10.

Dow 18232:
No change in my view on the Dow. The model keeps predicting a sell-off in the market despite the new highs we in.

Oil 59.92:
Oil keeps holding at a 60 level from our previous long call at the mid 40's. The coming days and weeks will determine if Oil will keep rising or will it re-test the previous lows.

1500 Points($15)gain for Oil

Oil gains 1500 points ($15) as the Model predicted

It all began in my first post on this blog, back on February 9, 2015, when I posted the following: "Oil - currently at 52.18. Awaiting on another test to the mid 40's to start accumulating and build a long position for the months to come." This call was against the widespread opinion of the street that called for oil’s further move downwards towards the 30's. Our opportunity began on March 16^th, when the Oil contract went all the way down to 45. On April 7^th, despite some mixed signals in the Oil market, I insisted on sticking to my call for a move towards 60. Last week on April 30^th, Oil touched 60 (at 59.89 to close the week at 59.29). That's a 1500-point profit from the mid 40's where we first bought Oil (as you can see in the chart below).

Thanks to the model's prediction we were able to enter at the bottom, and reach our profit target of 1500 points in merely several weeks. More to come. 

EUR/USD 1.1186
Despite the strength the Euro gained in recent days, my call remains to sell the Euro/Dollar on the highs.

Dow 18024
My short call from the 18200 level still in the making for the months to come.

Weekly Update

GBP/USD 1.5175:
Closing my previous call.
Unlike what I expected the British Pound managed to break the barrier of 1.50 to 1.5175  and as a result I will end my previous short call. However, this didn't change my long term view and should we see a new break below 1.50 this may trigger a new short call.

Oil 57.19:
The WT Oil behaved as I predicted and climbed all the way up from the mid 40's to 58 getting him closer to my profit target at 60. It may still fluctuate within the range of the 50's but I don't expect new lows.

Dow 18080:
No change in my view despite the Nasdaq's new highs.

EUR/USD 1.0863
No change in my view.

Last 10 Days in the Markets

Oil 56.14:
In my previous post from April 7, I wrote the following regarding Oil "I lean more towards a move up" as you can see on the chart below Oil managed to hold above the support level of 50 and climbed above 57 to close the week above 56 after coming all the way up from the low 40's as the model predicted. The days ahead will set the tone for further direction. 

Dow 17826:
As my Model predicted the Dow lacked the strength to hold above the 18200 level. No change from my previous posts and Model still signalling a Sell.

  

EUR/USD 1.0803:
No change from previous calls.

GBP/USD 1.4955:
Despite testing the 1.50 level again, The Cable couldn't manage to hold and fell back into the range. still in the making.

Bi-Monthly Updates on Oil, Dow, EUR/USD and GBP/USD

It's time for Updates on all of my model driven calls since I started this Blog back on February 9 this year.
In respond to readers request, I only post updates when I see it necessary due to changes in the market or serious moves in the positions I called. Otherwise, I find no reason to update even if days go by. As I wrote under my profile, my model isn't for day trading or short term trading. Although many times it may hit the profit target in matter of days as you can see from my past calls but the core of the model is price driven and not time driven.

Oil 53.25:
As mentioned on my previous posts, we saw a range from the low 40's to the low 50's which gave us the confidence to buy long from the low 40's. we also saw today a break above the 52 range up to 54.13. This works well if we entered from the low 40's which gave us a 1000 points move. however, my model is sending some confusing signals as to whether this will hold for additional move toward 60 and up or we will go back into the range of 50 and below. I lean more towards a move up but this isn't scientifically proven and I may be wrong in reading the signal here as there is definitely some resistance at this levels.

 

Dow 17875:
Model proved to be right on this one. we sold the market at 18200 and despite some moves in the recent days to the upper levels, so far it didn't hold and fell again. still in the range of 18200 to 17600.

EUR/USD 1.0810:
Model signaled a sell at 1.1340 and despite some attempts it didn't gain the strength to climb back to those levels. Our model is clear that the Eur/Usd is in a downtrend.

GBP/USD 1.4808:
The Model predicted back on March 19 that if it fails to move above 1.50 we can expect additional move to the downside of several hundreds points. As we can see on the chart it failed to make a move above 50 and so this move is still in the making.

Oil & Dow Update

The Dow behaves as expected and still within the range. Any attempt to break higher failed. still in line with my previous calls.

Oil trades within the range of low 40's to low 50's. We will keep watching for any breakout.